Cita cuatro desafíos que los candidatos deberán enfrentar, describe las diferentes formas de ser y actuar de los votantes de Iowa, New Hampshire y Carolina del Sur, y, en contra de la impresión general, cree que el nuevo sistema de primarias que alarga el proceso y retrasa la nominación puede ser útil para registrar votantes.
De todo eso habla en su último artículo para el Wall Street Journal:
(...) Every Republican candidate running faces four challenges in the coming contest. First, each one has strengths and at least one seemingly big weakness. They will need to fortify their strengths and find a way to overcome, explain or ameliorate their vulnerabilities.
Second, each candidate needs to develop a compelling narrative. The easy part is why Mr. Obama should be replaced. The harder part is to explain in a powerful way why he should be the replacement. What would he do? What is his vision? What has he accomplished? How can he give voters confidence he will do what he says?
Third, candidates need to demonstrate they can unify Republicans and broaden the GOP's appeal, pledging as Ronald Reagan said, to "carry our message to every American, regardless of party affiliation, who is a member of this community of shared values."
Finally, each candidate will face unexpected tests at an unanticipated time. How a candidate handles those moments will cause many voters to decide whether they can see him as a president.
Each of the early contests has its own tempo and flavor. In Iowa, for example, voters want to see the candidates a lot before they make up their minds. Candidates better not run a slew of television ads until voters have a chance to meet them. Generally, once Iowa activists commit, they stay committed.
New Hampshire is different. Granite Staters also want to eyeball the candidates personally—but once they've committed, they'll fall out of love, then back in love, then out of love, then back in love. If a candidate is lucky, his supporters are falling back in love on the eve of the primary.
South Carolina is more tribal, with each party poobah leading a group of tribesmen. Cultivate the leaders and a candidate will tend to get their followers.
Even then, most voters in each of these states stay uncommitted or weakly linked to their choice right up to the end. Polls can swing widely and the contests come together late.
No candidate in the GOP field is likely to wrap up the nomination early. The 2012 Republican presidential primary may run until June, when Montana, New Mexico and South Dakota will most likely vote. This is what happened with the Democrats last time. Done right, an extended contest could make the Republican nominee a better candidate while raising GOP enthusiasm, energy and voter registration.
Democrats are wrong to say Mr. Obama is being helped by a late-starting GOP presidential fight. That race is underway. The general election title match between Mr. Obama and the Republican candidate will go the full 12 rounds. By the time the GOP settles on its candidate, the White House may regret being so eager for the contest. (...)
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