I'm told by two reliable sources that Rudy Giuliani intends to run for the GOP nomination for president in 2012. He may throw his hat in the ring soon.
Rudy's theory of the race: In the fall of 2007, he decided he couldn't compete with both Mitt Romney and John McCain in New Hampshire, and disastrously decided to try to pull back there and pitch his tent in Florida. This year, he'll commit everything to New Hampshire, where he thinks he has a good shot at beating Romney—whom he criticized there earlier this week. He then thinks he can beat whichever more socially conservative candidate(s) is left by winning what are still likely to be winner-take-all primaries in big states like California, New York, and New Jersey.
Rudy's message: I'm tough enough to put our fiscal house in order and to protect us from enemies abroad. The U.S. in 2012 is in bad shape—like New York in 1993. The budget crisis is as severe—and seemingly intractable—as the crime/welfare crisis was in New York then. Rudy dealt with that when people said it couldn't be done. He'll deal with this.
Isn't his abysmal 2008 campaign a disqualifier? Rudy's answer: Consider the New York parallel. Rudy lost to David Dinkins in 1989, making several unforced errors and running without a focused message. In 1993, as the streets of New York plunged into crisis, Rudy ran a disciplined campaign pledging to turn the city around. He won, and in a disciplined first term, he governed successfully.
It seems implausible that Rudy Giuliani could win the nomination. But it's an implausible year.
jueves, 9 de junio de 2011
Giuliani se presenta, según el Weekly Standard
Lo afirma Bill Kristol, editor de la revista:
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5 comentarios:
Si esto ocurre podría dar un vuelco a las primarias republicanas y colar a otro "grande" con posibilidades reales a la nominación. Por otra parte, supongo que el más perjudicado sería Huntsman, al que le robaría parte del voto moderado.
Tampoco a Romney creo que le convenga la entrada de Giuliani porque tiene perfil para competir en New Hampshire.
Pero tiene mucho que demostrar Giuliani. De momento sólo tiene nombre, igual que en 2008.
Coincido. Los perjudicados Rommey y Hunstman, sobre todo en el noreste.
Rockford.
Respeto vuestras opiniones, pero pienso que el tiempo por Giuliani se ha ido. El tuvo su momentum cuando el 9/11 y la nacion estaba con todos los ciudadanos de NYC, pero sus oportunidades han desaparecido ahora. No es un technocrata como Romney ni tiene el soporte del Tea Party, tampoco es un conservador social. Sigue siendo una persona con gran carisma y es posible que su figura pueda atraer mucho dinero para el candidato que decida respaldar - especialmente en las grandes ciudades de Este. Pero si decide correr para ser candidato, seguramente solo consiga perder tiempo y dinero.
recuerden que el calendario de primarias ha cambiado, grandes estados con gran números de delegados tienen primarias mas temprano, algo que conviene a Giuliani.
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