Perry isn't a lock, but something has to happen to take him down, or he will win. Political pundits have been dismissing Perry's lead by claiming that early polls "mean nothing." But when you examine this view closely, it turns out to mean "early polls meant nothing in the 2007-2008 cycle." In general, early polls mean a great deal in Republican primaries. They're not perfect, but they are strong indicators.Comparte opinión John Ellis, primo de Bush, que a principios de semana decía en Business Insider que sólo los debates de septiembre y octubre separan a Perry de la nominación:
Obviously, you can't be certain about anything, and you have to make human judgments about the field. Does a candidate's lead represent a name recognition bubble that's likely to pop once voters learn more about the candidate's history or platform? (Think Joe Lieberman 2004.) When I look at the GOP field, I see an incredibly vulnerable Mitt Romney just waiting for someone to point out all the ways he's flouting the party's most deeply held beliefs, and see Rick Perry as both the man to do it and a a perfect embodiment of the party id.
Once Labor Day has passed, there will be five debates, in quick succession, on the GOP presidential candidates' calendars. These will be important tests for Perry. If at the end of two or three, it's clear that he's every bit the equal of Mitt Romney on matters of policy and politics, then the Perry juggernaut becomes all but unstoppable. Romney's "I'm the only electable one" argument will vanish and the party's base will nominate one of their own. If Perry stumbles badly in the debates, Romney's campaign gets a second wind.
Knowing that the only things standing between Perry and the GOP nomination are a couple of "good enough" debate performances, the GOP "establishment" faces a choice: they can cross their fingers and hope for the best or mount a sustained negative campaign to destroy Perry with the party's base. It is likely that, after Labor Day, a sustained negative campaign against Perry will be launched.
(...) The real test, then, will be the five upcoming debates. If Perry does well enough in those to convince the base that he can command the national stage, then the caucus and primary season won't be long. It'll be over before you know it.